Why do some small communities generate more air travel than others?

Details

The study examined the relationship between origin-and-destination (O&D) air travel and local area characteristics in small communities.

The researchers combined O&D travel data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics/United States Department of Transportation (BTS/DOT) with data on local economic and demographic activities supplied by the United States Bureau of Economic Analyses (BEA), Department of Commerce. They specified a semi-log linear demand relationship for O&D travel in small communities. The dataset covered 1999–2000 and contained more than 4,700 observations: 2,686 for communities without any small hubs and 2,087 for communities with small hubs. Using weighted least squares, they estimated air travel demand defined by O&D pairs.

Higher average fares were associated with lower passenger demand in both types of communities. Higher local area income was associated with more travel in both groups. The association with origin population differed: it was negative for smaller communities without any hub and positive for communities with small hubs. The presence of smaller hubs was associated with more air travel, while greater airline market concentration was associated with less O&D travel.

The authors concluded that factors shaping the economic framework ultimately drive long-run demand for air travel in small communities. They also discussed approaches for using their methodology to derive bottom-up projections. These projections have characteristics that may make them more useful for analyzing local passenger and aircraft flows, identifying and prioritizing local infrastructure investment requirements, and determining the revenue potential of this travel.