Where could terrestrial mammals lose the most suitable habitat by 2050?

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Conservation efforts worldwide are mainly guided by current levels of endangerment and historical trends in species and habitats. Estimates of future declines, which could suggest different priorities from past declines, have been limited by a lack of suitable data and models. The authors describe the inability to look ahead globally as a major constraint on effective conservation action, much of which involves anticipating and responding to future threats.

The researchers assessed the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. They coupled the global earth-system model IMAGE with fine-scale habitat suitability models, using parameters based on four global human-development scenarios. For each scenario, they identified the countries most affected by 2050, assuming no additional conservation actions beyond those described in the scenarios.

With some exceptions, most countries predicted to have the largest losses of suitable mammal habitat were in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species experiencing large proportional global declines. Most countries identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss had little or no overlap with present global conservation priorities, supporting the need for forward-looking analyses when setting priorities.

The authors say expected growth in human populations and consumption in future mammal-loss hotspots could make local conservation actions such as protected areas insufficient to mitigate losses. They conclude that other policies addressing the root causes of biodiversity loss are required in Africa and elsewhere in the world.