Do scientists and the public understand “uncertain risk” differently?

Details

In environmental health science, “uncertain risk” describes situations where uncertainty in what is known prevents a definitive statement about whether a risk exists. The concept is difficult to communicate and can easily lead to miscommunication and misunderstanding. The researchers investigated how different societal groups understood it.

They conducted in-depth interviews with members of the general public (N = 40), and used online open-ended questionnaires and online focus groups with scientists, policy makers and communication experts (N = 49).

Understanding varied both within and between groups. At least some representatives of every group described uncertainty in what is known, but the groups focused on different aspects of risk. Scientists based their descriptions only on uncertainties in risk assessment. Policy makers commonly said these uncertainties caused uncertainty in risk management. Communication experts mainly gave general descriptions but recognized aspects important to other groups. Members of the general public often described aspects that differed from the scientific understanding, such as a lack of personal control.

The researchers concluded that saying “a risk cannot be excluded” is not clear in risk communication, and that different associations and understandings need to be considered. Explaining uncertainties may improve shared understanding and foster a more balanced dialogue between societal groups. Further empirical research is needed to show whether and how explaining evidence and uncertainties in specific cases of uncertain risk improves understanding within and between groups.